Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Look Papa! I'm on the Loopcast! -- Talking complexity, simulation, black swans, randomness, resilience, and institutional innovation

If you have a spare 1 hr 40 min. *, you might want to listen my interview on the "Loopcast" podcast (below).  The host is Sina Kashefipour (@rejectionking on Twitter).

* Personally, I think I sound better at 1.5X speed, but then again I listen to most podcasts at 1.5X speed.

In this podcast, I reference the following websites and resources:



In the podcast, at 1: 09:00, I used the phrase "...30 sigma event..." and then went on to define the Greek character "sigma" σ  as the symbol used for "variance" in Statistics.  That is incorrect.

Instead, "sigma" σ is "standard deviation", and "variance" is the square of standard deviation, or σ2 .  

Also I made some errors on "one sigma", "two sigma", "three sigma" for a Normal distribution.  

Instead, it should be the "68–95–99.7 rule":
  • +/− one standard deviation ("one sigma") encompasses 68% of the probability mass
  • +/− two standard deviations ("two sigma") encompasses 95% of the probability mass
  • +/− three standard deviations ("three sigma") encompasses 99.7% of the probability mass

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