tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9079742631670078384.post51732063806512144..comments2024-03-28T03:19:51.528-07:00Comments on Exploring Possibility Space: Red Swans: Extreme Adversaries, Evolutionary Arms Races, and the Red QueenRussell Thomashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06123406032076292954noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9079742631670078384.post-28107185761149492962013-08-29T07:56:01.817-07:002013-08-29T07:56:01.817-07:00Re: long-term success vs failure rate -- great poi...Re: long-term success vs failure rate -- great point! It certainly isn't guaranteed that an innovation arms race leads to <em>successful</em> innovation. It could very well lead to an "evolutionary dead end" because it is prone to creating extremes and oddities that could lead to dramatic failure/collapse if the nature of competition and rivalry changes -- e.g. entrance of new competitor or adversary with very different capabilities.<br /><br />As you say, there's a myopia that is induced when most or all resources are devoted to destroying a given adversary. Worst-case setting for this might be blood feuds in criminal gangs.Russell Thomashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06123406032076292954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9079742631670078384.post-6787736598456043242013-08-27T21:09:30.197-07:002013-08-27T21:09:30.197-07:00First!
(And with that out of the way, some seriou...First!<br /><br />(And with that out of the way, some serious considerations)<br /><br />Completely philosophical: I wonder what the long-term success v failure rate of a successful Red Swan is. <br /><br />A party that focuses its all on destroying its adversary will inevitably lose sight of developments that are tangential to that goal. In other words, I wonder what the ratio of innovation for self-preservation versus utter destruction of adversary has to be that will balance the scales one way or the other. ;-)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06355490218099560800noreply@blogger.com